India's rice export prices are currently more competitive compared to other major exporters like Thailand, Pakistan, and Vietnam. In mid-December 2024, Thailand's export price for 5% broken white rice was around $523 per tonne but has decreased slightly to $494 per tonne.

In contrast, India's price is lower, ranging between $447-451 per tonne. Pakistan's prices are similar to India's, between $449-453 per tonne, while Vietnam's are slightly higher, ranging from $460-464 per tonne.

Additionally, India is also leading in the export price of Sela rice. The export offer price for Indian Sela rice is between $440-444 per tonne, while it is priced at $462-466 per tonne in Pakistan and $506 per tonne in Thailand.

The relatively lower price of Indian rice can be attributed to a few key factors. Indian rice millers are reluctant to stockpile large quantities due to the significant surplus in government warehouses and expectations of excellent domestic production.

The Indian government has estimated that rice production in the Kharif season will increase from 1132.60 lakh tonnes in the previous year to 1193.40 lakh tonnes this year.

The USDA forecasts India's total rice production for the 2024-25 season to be 1370 lakh tonnes. This will likely result in a substantial increase in exportable rice stock.

As a result, India's competitive pricing is expected to maintain its strong presence in the international market, keeping other exporting countries from raising their prices significantly.

The availability of adequate rice stocks both domestically and in the international market has made foreign importers cautious, further reinforcing India's advantage in the export market.