India Wheat Outlook: Production Rising, Stocks Rebuilding (USDA)
06-Apr-2026 04:03 PM
India Wheat Outlook: Production Rising, Stocks Rebuilding (USDA)
★ India’s wheat balance sheet, based on USDA estimates, indicates a recovery phase after tight supply years, supported by higher production and improved stock levels.
★ From 2021-22 to 2025-26, wheat production has increased from about 1095 lakh metric tons to nearly 1179 lakh metric tons, showing a steady upward trend. This growth is largely driven by better acreage, favorable weather, and policy support for wheat cultivation.
★ Total supply has remained relatively stable, as India largely depends on domestic production rather than imports.
★ Domestic consumption continues to stay consistently high at over 1080–1125 LMT, driven by PDS and food security schemes, Flour milling industry & Rising population demand
★ Ending stocks declined sharply from 195 LMT (2021-22) to lower levels in recent years, indicating tight supply
★ However, stocks are projected to rebuild significantly to around 172 LMT in 2025-26, supported by higher production and procurement
★ Going forward, wheat production is expected to remain stable to higher.
★ India’s wheat sector is transitioning from a tight stock phase to a stock recovery phase, with higher production expected to stabilize supply while meeting strong domestic demand.