IGrain India Exclusive Report- Rice Rice Industry Under Pressure: Export Crisis, Rising Stocks and Weather Concerns
13-Mar-2026 10:33 AM
IGrain India Exclusive Report- Rice
Rice Industry Under Pressure: Export Crisis, Rising Stocks and Weather Concerns
★ Amid the ongoing conflict in West Asia and rising maritime risks, India’s rice industry is currently going through a difficult phase. The impact is particularly severe on basmati rice exports.
★ Government warehouses are already holding huge rice stocks. As of February 1, the central pool has about 33.667 million tonnes of rice and 60.254 million tonnes of unmilled rice (paddy). Rice production has been continuously increasing over the past several years, leading to storage space challenges for the Food Corporation of India (FCI).
★ At the same time, shipping routes have been disrupted due to tensions in West Asia. Several rice containers sent to West Asian countries are returning to Indian ports. This has sharply increased container congestion at major ports such as Mundra, Gandhidham and Mumbai, creating serious space constraints.
★ Rising risks on maritime routes are also pushing freight rates higher. This could increase the export cost not only for basmati rice but also for non-basmati rice, potentially affecting the competitiveness of Indian rice in global markets.
★ Weather conditions may also emerge as a major concern in the coming season. Several weather agencies are indicating a stronger El Niño phase next season, which could significantly reduce rainfall in India. Since rice is a water-intensive crop, lower rainfall may affect production in the upcoming kharif season.
★ Overall, disruptions in exports, rising freight costs, large government stocks and weather uncertainty are creating a challenging environment for the rice industry. How quickly the situation stabilizes will largely depend on how the conflict in West Asia evolves.