The Union Agriculture Ministry has set an ambitious wheat production target of 1150 lakh tonnes for the current Rabi season, while the Food Ministry has set a more conservative procurement target of 300 lakh tonnes.

This lower target stems from the challenges faced in the previous two years, as well as concerns about higher market prices and the potential for farmers to withhold wheat stocks in anticipation of better prices.

The government has raised the minimum support price (MSP) for wheat for the 2024-25 season to Rs 2425 per quintal, with an additional bonus of Rs 125 per quintal in Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan, bringing the total price to Rs 2550 per quintal.

However, with wholesale prices running higher than the MSP, the Food Ministry fears that farmers might prefer selling their wheat directly to traders or stockists for higher prices, particularly in states like Uttar Pradesh and Bihar.

While procurement is expected to do well in states like Punjab, Haryana, Madhya Pradesh, and Rajasthan, there are concerns about meeting procurement targets in other regions.

The 300 lakh tonnes procurement goal is seen as cautious but could be revised upward if conditions allow. Last year, procurement fell short of its target, with only 266 lakh tonnes procured compared to the targeted 300-320 lakh tonnes. In 2023, the procurement target was 341.5 lakh tonnes, but only 262 lakh tonnes were achieved.