El Niño Outbreak Feared to Affect Monsoon Rains

05-Jan-2026 05:37 PM

New Delhi: The year 2026 could bring mixed results for the Indian agricultural sector. According to weather experts, the activation of the La Niña weather cycle in January-February may lead to normal rainfall, but there could be a lack of rain in March.

Following this, the Indian Ocean Dipole will remain neutral during the April-June quarter, which will not significantly affect pre-monsoon rains.

However, during the same period, the sea surface temperature in the tropical Pacific Ocean may begin to rise, increasing the likelihood of the arrival of the El Niño weather cycle.

It is noteworthy that the El Niño weather cycle is not considered favorable for the southwest monsoon in India.

Although it is not necessary that monsoon rains will be absent in an El Niño year, historical records show that El Niño outbreaks typically result in below-average or significantly below-average monsoon rainfall. This is true for most years, though not all. This situation requires close monitoring.

The worrying aspect is that weather experts have predicted that El Niño activity will peak in July-August-September, which is also the period when southwest monsoon rains and the sowing of Kharif crops are at their peak. India receives the most rainfall in July-August.

If rainfall is affected by El Niño during this time, it could impact the sowing and growth of Kharif crops. In fact, July-August is characterized by intense heat and very high temperatures. This increases the rate of moisture evaporation from the soil, leading to cracking of the fields.

Good monsoon rains during this period are crucial for farmers. Currently, the possibility of El Niño's arrival has been expressed. It will be necessary to observe how the situation develops over the next six months. No concrete evidence has emerged yet.