Decline in Kharif Crop Production Projected

New Delhi: Kharif crop production is likely to decline this year due to deficient and erratic rainfall during the southwest monsoon and uneven distribution of rain; simultaneously, there are concerns regarding risks to the upcoming Rabi crops, particularly in rain-fed areas. The El Niño weather cycle is expected to remain active until February-March 2027, potentially leading to reduced rainfall in the coming months.

During the southwest monsoon season, while many parts of the country faced a significant rainfall deficit, other regions experienced torrential downpours and severe flooding. Both these weather extremes are proving detrimental to Kharif crops. Although there has been no significant overall decline in the area under Kharif cultivation—and barring paddy, the sowing area for other crop categories has remained comparable to last year—adverse weather and monsoon conditions threaten to cause substantial crop damage. Average yield rates could be affected.

The Union Agriculture Minister has assured that the overall target for the Kharif cultivation area has been achieved. During the 2025-26 Kharif season, the country produced a total of 1,760.40 lakh tonnes of food grains—including 1,247.60 lakh tonnes of rice, as well as pulses and coarse cereals. However, concerns persist this time due to El Niño.