After the New Year holiday period, activity in the global rice market is expected to pick up again, as many importers in Asia and Africa resume their purchasing activities. This is expected to lead to a potential rise in rice prices.

In India, the export offer price of rice has been declining for three consecutive weeks, reaching its lowest level in 17 months. Despite the depreciation of the Indian rupee, which helped mitigate the impact on exporters' margins, weak demand resulted in a noticeable decrease in trade.

The price of 5% broken rice from India fell to $436-$442 per ton, while white rice prices dropped to $440-$449 per ton.

With the removal of restrictions, duties, and controls on rice exports, India is likely to see a substantial increase in its rice shipments.

This surge in exports could negatively impact Thailand, as India is regaining the market share it lost to Thailand last year. Thailand’s export offer price for 5% broken rice is significantly higher, at $490-$502 per ton, making Indian rice more competitive.

While Myanmar and Vietnam pose limited competition due to their restricted export destinations, Pakistan remains a key competitor. However, India’s rice is particularly favored in African markets, giving it a competitive edge over Pakistan.

In summary, the global rice market is expected to see increased activity in the post-New Year period, with India’s rice exports likely to rise, putting pressure on Thailand and potentially affecting other countries like Pakistan.