Wheat prices are expected to improve due to increase in demand and supply complications

02-Apr-2025 07:54 PM

New Delhi. Although the Union Agriculture Ministry has estimated the domestic production of wheat to jump from the record level of 1133 lakh tonnes in 2023-24 to an all-time high of 1154 lakh tonnes in the current season of 2024-25 and the Union Food Ministry has set a wheat procurement target of 313 lakh tonnes,

which is 47 lakh tonnes more than last year's total actual procurement of 266 lakh tonnes, but a rating agency says that wheat prices may improve in the coming months if demand increases and supply conditions remain complex.

The price of wheat has come down slightly in recent weeks due to the arrival of new goods. According to the rating agency, as the marketing season of 2025-26 progresses, its supply situation may become complex and its domestic market price may remain slightly higher than the current level.

Wheat prices are expected to improve in the international market. According to the International Grains Council (IGC), global wheat production may decline to the lowest level in several years during the 2025-26 marketing season.

This will result in less wheat stock in major exporting countries, supply and availability will decline and prices will increase slightly. Some countries in the Asian continent may have to increase wheat imports due to weak stocks.

According to the latest report of the IGC, the global outstanding stock of wheat is estimated to be 264 million tonnes at the end of the 2024-25 marketing season, which may shrink by 5 million tonnes to 259 million tonnes at the end of the 2025-26 season.

Although global production of wheat is estimated to rise to a high of 807 million tonnes, its global consumption is also expected to jump to 813 million tonnes, which will increase pressure on the outstanding stock.

The global wheat trade is expected to be 201 million tonnes. The US Department of Agriculture has slightly increased the estimate of global wheat production due to the possibility of better production in Australia.

Similarly, the estimate of consumption has also been increased. According to the rating agency, the average price of wheat at the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) was earlier estimated to be $ 5.80 per bushel, but now it has been fixed at $ 5.85 per bushel.