The Threat of El Niño Persists

14-Aug-2026 11:11 AM

Undoubtedly, the performance of the southwest monsoon improved in July, bringing higher-than-expected rainfall to various parts of the country. Rainfall conditions have remained normal so far in August as well, leading to a significant improvement in the sowing of Kharif crops; however, the threat posed by the El Niño weather cycle persists. This weather cycle is steadily gaining strength and intensity, which could partially impact the monsoon in the near future. July and August are the months of peak rainfall and constitute the primary period for sowing Kharif crops.

In terms of acreage, the situation in India is currently near normal, so there is no cause for serious concern. While it is true that until last week, the cultivation areas for paddy, tur (pigeon pea), moong (green gram), and maize were lagging behind last year's figures, the extent of the decline in acreage is not significant. It is anticipated that the total area under Kharif crops this season could match or approach the levels seen last year and the five-year average.

The El Niño weather cycle is likely to have a greater impact on other countries compared to India; these include Australia, Southeast Asia, and nations within the Indian subcontinent. There are concerns that this could adversely affect the production of commodities such as paddy (rice), palm oil, cocoa, sugarcane (sugar), and coffee. If El Niño remains strong for an extended period, wheat production could also be affected.

Countries in South Asia and Southeast Asia—including India—are massive producers of rice, and reduced rainfall due to El Niño could jeopardize the paddy crop. The influence of El Niño is expected to intensify through December, and it may take approximately five months thereafter for the phenomenon to dissipate completely, potentially impacting agricultural production across several nations.