November soybeans have averaged $10.20 in October as part of the harvest price discovery for crop insurance. This is 17 cents above last year’s harvest price but 34 cents lower than the February base price.

Following US sanctions on Russian crude oil companies on Wednesday, reports indicated that Chinese oil buyers may have temporarily suspended Russian oil purchases. They appear to be trying to avoid sanctions, but this move could signal broader implications ahead of the expected Trump–Xi meeting later this month. Secretary Bessent and Chinese counterparts are scheduled to meet in Malaysia this weekend for trade talks in preparation for that meeting.

No Export Sales data was released this morning due to the government shutdown. Trade estimates suggest 0.6 to 2 million metric tons of soybeans were sold during the week ending October 16. Soymeal sales are expected between 150,000 and 450,000 MT, while soyoil sales are seen between 5,000 and 25,000 MT.

According to IGC data, world soybean output was trimmed by 1 MMT to 428 MMT. Consumption fell by 1 MMT, while trade rose by 2 MMT. Global ending stocks were down 4 MMT to 79 MMT, with old-crop carryover also down 4 MMT.