★ Sugar prices have been under pressure over the past seven months. Last month, New York sugar futures touched a 4.5-year low, as indications of higher sugar output emerged from Brazil.

★ On October 2, Unica reported that sugar production in Brazil’s Center-South region in the first half of September rose 15.7% year-on-year to 3.622 million tons. In the second half of August, 53.49% of the sugarcane crushed by Brazilian mills was used for sugar production, up from 47.74% during the same period last year. However, cumulative Center-South production through mid-September in the 2025-26 season fell slightly by 0.1% year-on-year to 30.388 million tons.

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★ The prospect of higher sugar exports from India is also bearish for prices, as abundant monsoon rains may result in a record crop. On September 30, the India Meteorological Department reported that cumulative monsoon rainfall as of September 30 reached 937.2 mm, 8% above normal — the strongest monsoon in five years.

★ On June 2, the National Federation of Cooperative Sugar Factories projected India’s 2025/26 sugar production to rise 19% year-on-year to 34.9 million tons. Previously, in 2024/25, production had declined 17.5% year-on-year to 26.2 million tons, a five-year low.

★ Another bearish factor is that India may divert 4 million tons of sugar to ethanol production in 2025/26, which is insufficient to offset the domestic surplus. Therefore, Indian mills may export as much as 4 million tons of sugar, above earlier expectations of 2 million tons.

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★ Thailand is also showing signs of higher production. On October 1, the Thai Sugar Miller Corp projected that the country’s 2025/26 sugar output would increase 5% year-on-year to 10.5 million tons. In May, Thailand’s Office of the Cane and Sugar Board reported that sugar production in 2024/25 rose 14% year-on-year to 10.0 million tons.

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★ On August 29, the International Sugar Organization (ISO) forecast a global sugar deficit for 2025/26. ISO estimates that the global sugar deficit for 2025/26 will be 231,000 tons, significantly lower than the 4.88 million ton deficit in 2024/25. Global sugar production is projected to rise 3.3% year-on-year to 180.6 million tons, while global sugar consumption is expected to increase 0.3% year-on-year to 180.8 million tons.