Global Production of Various Commodities Likely to be Affected by El Niño

Mumbai. Several global organizations have repeatedly warned that the current El Niño weather cycle could be one of the most dangerous, powerful, and destructive ever, potentially subjecting many countries to severe drought. This is expected to impact the global production of various crops, including maize, coffee, sugarcane, and oil palm. Rice production is also likely to decline.

According to weather experts, El Niño is expected to increase the risk of drought in parts of southern Africa, central North America, northern South America, and Southeast Asia. Consequently, the production of commodities such as maize, rice, sugar, palm oil, tea, and coffee could be adversely affected.

During the last major El Niño event, the intensity of drought increased by 11–12 percentage points. Countries such as Zambia, Zimbabwe, the "dry corridor" of Central America, Thailand, the Philippines, Guyana, and Suriname faced significant hardship. This time, the scope of El Niño’s impact is expected to be even broader, which could lead to a serious food security crisis.

According to the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO)—a specialized agency of the United Nations—El Niño frequently disrupts global weather patterns, negatively affecting food security, agricultural production, and rural economies. Indirectly, it also impacts the industrial and commercial sectors, leading to a surge in global market prices for key agricultural and food products.