Doubt Over India's Sugar Exports Reaching 10 Lakh Tonne Quota

25-Apr-2025 01:54 PM

Geneva, April 2025 – Despite the Indian government's allocation of a 10 lakh tonne sugar export quota to millers on January 20, 2025, industry experts now express doubt that the full quota will be shipped this season. Speaking at the Global Sugar Conference in Geneva, a representative from the Indian Sugar and Bio-energy Manufacturers Association (ISMA) stated that actual exports may only reach 6–7 lakh tonnes due to unfavorable global market conditions.

With international prices softening and domestic sugar prices remaining high, Indian millers are struggling to secure export deals. Meanwhile, Brazil’s new crushing season has begun, boosting global supply and further pressuring prices on the international market. Though exports are permitted until September 30, 2025, the current trend raises concerns.

Sugar Production Drops Sharply in 2024–25

As of April 15, India has produced around 254 lakh tonnes of sugar. Including additional production expected from Karnataka and Tamil Nadu during July–September, the total output for the 2024–25 season is projected at around 260 lakh tonnes — 59 lakh tonnes lower than last season's 319 lakh tonnes.

This decline could reduce the industry's surplus stock to below 50 lakh tonnes by the end of the season. If production doesn’t rebound in 2025–26, experts warn of a potential supply crunch in the domestic market, keeping sugar prices firm in the near future.