Domestic sugar production in India is expected to decline during the 2024-25 marketing season, according to the National Federation of Cooperative Sugar Factories (NFCSF). The Federation estimates total sugar production to be around 280 lakh tonnes, which is 39 lakh tonnes lower than the 319 lakh tonnes produced in the 2023-24 season. This reduction is attributed to potential declines in sugarcane production, crushing activity, and the average recovery rate of sugar.

Sugar production in key states is expected to drop significantly:

• Uttar Pradesh: 98 lakh tonnes (down from 103.65 lakh tonnes)
• Maharashtra: 87 lakh tonnes (down from 110.20 lakh tonnes)
• Karnataka: 45 lakh tonnes (down from 53 lakh tonnes)
• Tamil Nadu: 8.5 lakh tonnes (down from 10.75 lakh tonnes)
• Gujarat: 9 lakh tonnes (down from 9.2 lakh tonnes)

The Federation has also projected smaller contributions from other states:

• Bihar: 6.5 lakh tonnes
• Haryana: 6 lakh tonnes
• Madhya Pradesh: 5 lakh tonnes
• Punjab: 6 lakh tonnes
• Uttarakhand: 4.5 lakh tonnes
• Andhra Pradesh-Telangana: 3 lakh tonnes
• Other states: 1.5 lakh tonnes

Notably, Maharashtra, Uttar Pradesh, and Karnataka, which accounted for 83.65% of India's sugar production in 2023-24, are expected to contribute 82.14% in 2024-25, marking a slight decrease.

Despite these projections, sugarcane crushing is ongoing in various states, and sugar production is gradually improving.