Almond prices rise due to decrease in production in California

21-Dec-2024 08:16 PM

The almond industry in California, which is the largest almond-producing region in the United States, is facing significant challenges due to adverse weather conditions, natural disasters, and a lack of interest from some producers.

These factors are expected to lead to a notable decrease in almond production, which, in turn, is likely to drive up almond prices.

During the 2022-2023 season, California experienced a peak in almond production, reaching 3 billion pounds. However, due to a sharp decline in prices, producers faced substantial losses, leading many to abandon almond cultivation.

As a result, production for the 2024-2025 season is expected to drop to around 2.60 billion pounds, further contributing to price hikes. The price of almonds in California has already risen from $1.65 per pound last year to $1.87 per pound.

Since India is a major importer of almonds from California, the increase in production costs is expected to affect prices in India as well.

Although older almond stock from the bumper 2022 harvest helped keep prices relatively stable in 2023 and 2024, much of that stock has now been depleted (around 70%).

With the new harvest arriving in April 2025, supply and availability may remain tight, complicating the situation.

In India, almond prices are expected to remain strong in the first quarter of next year, with market fluctuations dependent on the outcome of the upcoming California harvest and the prices in the U.S. market.

In summary, due to decreased production in California, almond prices are rising, and this trend is likely to continue in both the U.S. and India, particularly in the early part of next year.